UFC Vegas 122 goes down this weekend inside META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event is Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan in the middleweight division. The co-main event is Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert. The main card also hosts Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza, Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III and Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi.
Here is a brief overview and our pick for each main card fight.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Allen's eight-fight winning streak was snapped by Nassourdine Imavov in 2024. He then lost to Anthony Hernandez the following year. Since then, he has reeled off three wins in a row and looked more aggressive than ever. Duncan lost a decision to Gregory Rodrigues in 2024 but has won five straight since then.
This is a close matchup on paper. Allen's cardio and experience against top contenders should help him. Duncan has never gone five rounds before and carries a lot of muscle while putting energy into spinning attacks. Over the long haul, Duncan's explosive attacks may fade while Allen's pressure and grappling get him the decision.
Our pick: Brendan Allen
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
Camilo is still mostly known as the guy who beat the fighter who begged Dana White for a contract. He has gone 2-1 since then, including a 91-second finish of Nazim Sadykhov in his last fight. Herbert got a first-round TKO over Mandel Nallo in April. He has quietly fought ten times in the UFC but is yet to put together two wins in a row.
Camilo is a wrestler who has been very active with takedowns. Herbert has good takedown defense on paper at 66 percent, and has never been taken down more than twice in a bout outside of his fight with Renato Moicano. Camilo's youth and athleticism might help him, but Herbert's experience should keep this competitive.
Our pick: Coin-toss, leaning Herbert
Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza
Godinez was dominated by Tatiana Suarez in her last fight, losing by second-round submission. Souza scored a huge head kick KO in June over Ariane Carnelossi. She is 4-3 in the UFC.
Godinez has rag-dolled anyone who is not a high-level wrestler and grappler. Her 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes is very high, and her 42 percent takedown accuracy is solid. Souza's best defense will be landing big shots as Godinez changes levels. Godinez should be smart enough to avoid danger en route to getting her takedowns.
Our pick: Lupita Godinez
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
This will be Fili's 28th bout in the UFC. He is 13-13-1 after back-to-back losses to Vinicius Oliveira and Jose Delgado. Kamaka III lost a firefight with Luke Riley in July by standing TKO. This is his second stint with the promotion.
This should be a fun fight with both guys having their moments. Fili's experience and strength of schedule give him an edge. Kamaka does not have the power to hurt Fili on the feet or the know-how to do anything on the ground against him. If this stays in the clinch or on the mat, Fili has a considerable advantage.
Our pick: Andre Fili
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Wellmaker had looked like part of the new wave of killers landing big KOs. Then he got schooled by Ethyn Ewing and submitted by Juan Diaz. Tanzilovi made his debut in June and lost a decision to Shane Collins. His striking was non-existent against Collins, and he could not win a round despite getting five takedowns.
Tanzilovi's lack of firepower on the feet and activity on the ground means he is likely to take too much punishment on the feet. Wellmaker needs a big finish if he wants to crash the increasingly stacked bantamweight party.
Our pick: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO
