Josh Hokit is a -340 favorite against Derrick Lewis (+270 underdog) ahead of their heavyweight bout on June 14 at UFC Freedom 250 on the White House lawn.
Hokit is undefeated at 9-0 and riding the wave of a Fight of the Year performance against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 327. Lewis, 41, holds the UFC record for most knockouts in promotion history with 16.
The Speed and Youth Advantage
Hokit's hands are incredibly fast for a heavyweight. He came out firing in round one against Blaydes, a top-five opponent, nearly putting the veteran away before he could even get his bearings. That first round was one of the most violent five minutes seen in the heavyweight division in years. Hokit threw middle fingers during exchanges and looked determined to end the fight before it started.
The conditioning gap is significant. Hokit gassed hard against Blaydes but still kept throwing through the fatigue. Lewis has always had cardio issues. If the fight makes it to round two, Lewis historically starts to fade and his output drops off.
The Black Beast's Path
Lewis is going to meet Hokit in the middle, because that is what Lewis does. He stands in the pocket, loads up power shots, and waits for openings. At 41 years old with 43 pro fights on his record, his chin is not what it used to be. Pavlovich cracked him in under a minute. Cortes-Acosta got him in the second round. The durability questions are real.
Lewis always carries knockout power, and there is risk here. One right hand from the Black Beast can end anyone's night.
Betting Trends
Hokit has finished two of his three UFC opponents, with his only decision coming in the Blaydes war. His average UFC fight time is 6 minutes and 57 seconds across three bouts.
Lewis has been stopped in three of his last five fights. His 52% takedown defense is the lowest among ranked heavyweights.
Hokit and Blaydes combined for 354 significant strikes at UFC 327, setting the all-time record for a three-round UFC heavyweight fight. Hokit landed 177 of those.
UFC Freedom 250 Fight Card
Lightweight Title: Ilia Topuria (c) vs. Justin Gaethje
Heavyweight Interim Title: Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
Bantamweight: Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Heavyweight: Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis
Lightweight: Maurício Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
Featherweight: Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
