The UFC returns to Philadelphia for its latest numbered event in UFC 330, where the top two fights are doing a lot of work. Welterweight champ Islam Makhachev looks to continue chasing greatness against Ian Machado Garry, and the strawweight title fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson should result in a fun grappling battle.
Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry
Odds: Makhachev (-340), Garry (+270)
Islam Makhachev's career remains fascinating, as he is clearly one of the best fighters of this era without having the massive result that establishes him as an all-time great. He is also clearly in the shadow of longtime friend and training partner Khabib Nurmagomedov, as he was defined as "the next Khabib" even while the original product was still active.
Once Nurmagomedov surprisingly retired following the death of his father, the Makhachev push was immediately on, and he proved more than ready for the moment. He made easy work of a run of opponents that included Dan Hooker and King Green, then took apart Charles Oliveira to win the lightweight title.
Makhachev's lightweight reign lasted four defenses, the best of which was his first against featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. The two put on an all-timer of a bout that Makhachev eked out, surprisingly leaning on a striking advantage while Volkanovski proved a quite effective wrestler.
He announced his move up to welterweight, where he surprisingly wound up facing Jack Della Maddalena. Makhachev made Della Maddalena look like a bit of a flash in the pan as a championship-level fighter, outwrestling him handily.
The Challenger
A standout on the European scene, Garry needed just two years and change to prove everything he needed to prove at the regional level. Long for the division and an impressive game planner, "The Future" showed an ability to lean on his striking or wrestling as the matchup called for it.
Garry suffered his first career loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov, a flat performance from both men, which seems to have motivated him to mend some fences and get back into his old groove. He did a surprisingly effective job of neutralizing and outworking Carlos Prates, and his win over Muhammad was an impressive reminder of how well Garry can dictate the terms of a fight.
The Verdict
It should be fun to see how Makhachev approaches this, as this is a unique challenge for one of the best fighters in the world. Garry has the physical attributes to frustrate Makhachev and knows how to use them with an approach that does not figure to leave a lot of easy money on the table.
Based purely on film, there is a lot to like in terms of Garry's ability to make this a slog and outpoint Makhachev on his way to a win. But Makhachev has earned every benefit of the doubt at this point. Garry's takedown defense is not bulletproof, and the Nurmagomedov camp has consistently proven itself to be the best team in the sport as far as tailoring a game plan to its opponent. Until proven otherwise, the pick is Makhachev via decision.
