Mackenzie Dern will defend her strawweight title against Gillian Robertson this weekend at UFC 330 in Philadelphia.
Dern captured the crown not by improving to become champion, but by the division weakening to the point that the jiu-jitsu master was able to capture the crown. There is no denying Dern as an aggressive and fun fighter, but her title reign definitely feels like a product of circumstance rather than undeniable ability.
Robertson, 31, has been on the roster for nearly a decade now. Early in her UFC career, Robertson struggled to find consistency, but that changed when she dropped back down to strawweight in 2023. She has since won six of seven fights, establishing herself as an elite contender.
How Dern Wins
Dern is one of the best grapplers to ever step into the Octagon, a decorated world champion several times over. Her takedowns are not particularly consistent, however, which prevents Dern from being a truly unstoppable force in the division. Fortunately, she has improved considerably on her feet over the years, developing a nice jab to complement her thudding right hand.
Dern is an opportunistic fighter who excels at capitalizing on her opponents' mistakes. Against a fellow grappler in Robertson, Dern should be engaging often both on the feet and on the canvas, as she is simply more dangerous in both areas.
How Robertson Wins
Robertson is an excellent ground fighter. She chain wrestles better than most of her division, and once on top, Robertson is able to control her opponents, advance position, and do damage. As a result, she has the most submission wins in UFC women's history.
Robertson has not won a single UFC fight on the virtue of her striking, so she wins this fight on the canvas even if those are dangerous waters to tread.
Prediction
Robertson does not really have a choice but to engage Dern on the canvas, yet she will have trouble getting her down. Dern can counter takedowns well, particularly in the clinch, and it feels likely that Dern's top position will be quite problematic for Robertson.
Robertson can win if she safely finds a way to top position, but Dern's advantages in power, jiu-jitsu and athleticism make that a difficult path.
